Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
